Can Obama recover? *UPDATED*
I was thinking about the fact that, despite the disastrous start the Clinton administration had (“Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”; Hillary Care), Clinton nevertheless managed to pull out a two term presidency. That thought, inevitably, led to me asking myself whether Obama can do the same. I don’t think so, for two specific reasons.
First, Clinton’s health care debacle didn’t have his name attached to it. It was his wife who had the ignominy of having a completely failed policy initiative named after her: “Hillary Care.” While voters, in 1996, may have remembered the whole legislative flail, they didn’t have it engraved in their mind as “Clinton Care.” Hillary took the heat. Here, however, if one assumes (as I do) that Obama Care is heading for history’s trash heap (although I’m sure that, Frankenstein-like, some decaying parts will be resurrected to our cost), the historic takeaway will be the tight association with Obama. It wasn’t just any old generic health care plan that horribly frightened Americans, divided Democrats, and tanked Obama’s numbers. Instead, it was Obama Care that did all this.
To give you an idea of the importance of those strong word associations, I can still sing quickly and easily all the commercial jingles from my childhood (Oscar Mayer, McDonald’s, Armour Hot Dogs, etc.), because those words have sunk so deeply into my brain they are locked in. I think the same will hold true for Obama Care, which will be forever linked with failure.
Second, people knew who Clinton was when he came to the White House. They did not buy a pig in a poke when they elected him. His failures (many) and successes (many), his charm (open and ebullient) and his corruption (constant), were all before the public eye. The guy had a track record. We heard about his grades and his Oxford year. We knew his wacky brother and his scary wife. His Arkansas governorship was analyzed inside and out. And Lord, did that man talk. His every speech was a combination of policy wonkery and self-confessional. Democratic or Republican, pro or con, none of us were surprised with Bill. Nor was it a surprise when, suffering serious Congressional setbacks in 1994, Bill immediately tacked to the middle. The man wanted to to be loved, and would do what it took to stay that way.
The opposite is true of Obama. When Americans elected him, no one knew who he was. No one from his past came forward to speak of him, his educational accomplishments were (and are) under wraps, he had no record of executive accomplishments, and he explicitly lied about a number of things, such as his supposedly moderate politics and his great love for the State of Israel. The media sang Hallelujahs about intangible things such as brilliance, charm, grace and an even-temper, but Obama was so carefully scripted that we never saw those traits tested. Sure, those of us who were suspicious made guesses about him because of his friends (and you know the list, headed by Wright and Ayers, and just continuing onwards forever), but we still knew nothing about the man. And unlike Bill, Obama wasn’t spilling. This is not a man given to using the podium as the confessional.
All of which means that, when Bill’s failures came, those who knew him (which was everyone) either forgave him or said “I told you so.” No Americans shouted, “We’ve been tricked and betrayed.” The case is entirely different with Obama. The past seven months have proven him to be the opposite of everything we were promised. He’s a radical politician and a lousy executive. He’s pig ignorant about everything from history to economics. His charm melts away with the signed basketballs his Obama-ness hands out as gifts, sure that others will be as impressed by him as he is by himself. He’s hostile to our allies, most notably Israel, and, as the apology tour showed, hostile to us too. Whether you love what he’s trying to do or hate it, there is no doubt that he is nothing like the man sold to us in 2008.
People hate being played for fools. We allowed Clinton to hunker down and retrench his policies to be more centrist because we always knew who and what he was, and just figured that he’d learned his lesson. Obama, though, has lied to us at a very profound level. Even if he retrenches, I doubt any of us will be able to trust that “he’s learned his lesson” because we know that he lies, and lies, and lies again. And he doesn’t just lie about facts extraneous to himself (although he sure does a lot of that too), he lies about himself. Voters will not, I think, forgive that kind of profound betrayal.
UPDATE: Before I get accused of rose-colored glasses and hubris here, let me say that I’m completely in sync with Andrew McCarthy who writes that, Obama’s behavior notwithstanding, we conservatives are still perfectly capable of shooting ourselves in the foot. The 2010 election wouldn’t be the first time a group snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
